Thursday, March 24, 2011

Dara'a Syria: The Real Test is Tomorrow

Again, via RPS,

Dara'a. Thousands of mourners have buried today those who were massacred at the hands of the Syrian security yesterday. Some estimates place the number of dead at between 100-150 but no independent source has been able to verify the numbers or the names yet. Many Syrians believe that yesterday's carnage is a sign the world is turning a deaf ear to their plight.

The Real Test. Assad could not afford Friday March 25 to be a national day of demonstrations. He massacred enough Syrians in Dara'a in the hope it will dissuade Syrians elsewhere. The real test is tomorrow after Friday prayers. So far, no Arab TV network has spoken of the carnage so most Syrians do not know about it. But they cannot ignore it. If Syria rises after what it witnessed, Assad will have a hard time just keep killing at will. But if Syrians stay home, Assad would have won the first battle, but not the war. 

An Important Statistic. Syria is 30% minorities and 70% Sunnis. Of the 70% Sunnis, 50% are Sufi Sunni (Sufism is peaceful and separates state from religion). Under the worst of scenarios, 35% of Sunnis can be fundamentalists (Worst case but not the likely case). In a real Syrian Federal democracy, with a strong army controlled by an amalgamation of minorities, like the Alawites, and moderate Sunnis, this worst case scenario is not a threat to Syria or any of its neighbors. If the MB wants to practice Sharia, they can all live in the Province that chooses Sharia as its laws. Syrians have a plan but the world is not listening.

Arab TV Networks. Most have been mum about the latest events in Dara'a. This conspiracy will come back to haunt the rulers of Qatar and Saudi Arabia. BBC Arabic has had the best coverage so far. RPS is working on some statistical analysis to share.  

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