Friday, April 22, 2011

Civil War in Syria is not a Solution

More via Reform Party of Syria

One of the sons of Sheikh Saleh al-Fa'doos was killed by Assad's security men in Homs on April 19. Sheikh al-Fa'doos, who comes from the Faware'eh tribe will have to respond as a matter of honor.

Al-Faware'eh are allied with two important tribes in Iraq and Jordan. In Iraq, they have an alliance with the Duleimeh tribe (Ahmad Abu Richeh) and in Jordan to the Bani Hassn tribe. The Bani Hassan tribe is supportive of King Abdullah and has helped maintain peace in Jordan recently.

The Duleimeh tribe in Iraq are descendants of the al-Shaalan tribe, which for all intended purposes are considered the masters of al-Saud family of Saudi Arabia. The tree is strong because the branches, on opposing sides, support each other through marriages, alliances, and next of kinship.
This is why Assad has been asking Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon to seal their borders against arms smuggling. A futile exercise given that Syrian borders were considered impossible to seal with Iraq during its US liberation (Assad should know better!!)

Arms are flowing into Syria in large quantities today by tribal leaders whose traditional bonds with the tribes of Syria makes it impossible not to smuggle arms. As Assad massacres continue against unarmed civilians, he is also driving the country towards an outright civil war. 

Many may believe this is a solution to weaken Iran and keep Assad busy in his own backyard. The reality though that if Syria enters a long period of civil strife divided across sectarian lines, it will weaken the nation to the point where the victor, whomever it is, will be a weak, battle-ready soldier. If history has taught us anything, it is that a weak country governed by weak men is the most dangerous to have as a neighbor. A civil war in Syria is not a solution.

The White House, the UN, and the EU must avert the scenario of a Syrian civil war from happening by forcing Assad either to resign his post with some guarantees for safe passage or to encourage a military coup that would usher a civilian government ready to democratize Syria through a transitional government. Barring these difficult to implement solutions, a limited, drone-driven military action may yet convince someone in Damascus it is time to roll Baschar and his family over for the greater good of the community and the country.

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